Majority of Canadians take Alberta separation more seriously than Quebec

A national survey found that a majority of Canadians think the threat of Alberta separating from Canada should be taken seriously, with this sentiment strongest within Alberta itself.

Source: Wikimedia Commons

A national survey found that a majority of Canadians think the threat of Alberta separating from Canada should be taken seriously, with this sentiment strongest within Alberta itself.

The Association for Canadian Studies released a poll that found 52 per cent of Canadians not only believe Alberta’s threats to leave the federation should be taken seriously but also feel that such a scenario is more likely than Quebec’s separation.

At the same time, only 42 per cent of Canadians think that Quebec could successfully secede.

Alberta’s United Conservative government legally lowered the bar for triggering a referendum last month, making it far easier for citizens to trigger a province-wide vote on its future relationship with Canada.

The recent election of Prime Minister Mark Carney has only further strained national unity, while also fanning the flames of Western alienation.

Over a third of respondents said that the re-election of a Liberal government will not lead to more national unity at 37 per cent, while another cohort of 34 per cent believe that it would, with the rest undecided.

Fifty-two per cent of Albertans agreed that the Liberals will not improve national unity, followed by Manitoba and Saskatchewan at 39 per cent, Quebec at 38 per cent, B.C. at 35 per cent, Atlantic Canada at 34 per cent and Ontario at 33 per cent.

Alberta’s newly introduced legislation reduced the required number of petition signatures from 600,000 to just 177,000, based on 10 per cent of ballots cast in the last general election.

Canadians outside of Alberta don’t view the threat to be as much of a reality, with 51 per cent of British Columbians, half of Atlantic Canadians and only 46 per cent in Quebecers, where it’s taken the least seriously.

While 54 per cent those in Ontario, Manitoba and Saskatchewan are more likely to agree the threat is legitimate, it’s felt most strongly amongst Albertans themselves at 63 per cent.

Politically, Conservative voters are far more likely to be concerned with Alberta leaving with nearly 64 per cent saying it should be taken seriously, whereas only 48 per cent of Liberal voters feel that way.

Forty-seven per cent of NDP voters are also concerned, while Bloc voters are the least worried at 42 per cent.

Despite this, Quebecers remain more focused on their own province’s independence. Quebec was home to the last referendum on secession in 1995, and today, 51 per cent of Quebec residents believe there are valid reasons to leave Canada. That compares to just 20 per cent of Atlantic Canadians.

Albertans were the second most likely to see reasons for Quebec separation at 32 per cent, followed by Ontarians at 30 per cent and those in B.C. at 25 per cent.

Both Manitoba and Saskatchewan tied at 23 per cent.

Party lines are visible with Quebec separation as well, with 51 per cent of Bloc voters saying it’s a serious threat, compared to only 36 per cent of Conservative voters.

Forty-five per cent of Liberal voters also agree that Quebec could one day leave, followed by 44 per cent of New Democrats.