Support for Alberta separation reaches five-year high: poll

A new poll by Pollara Strategic Insights found that 27 per cent of Albertans would vote now vote to leave Canada.

Alberta separatist rally: X

Author: Quinn Patrick

As a potential referendum vote for Albertan independence looms, support for separation among residents has reached a five-year high, according to a new poll taken by Pollara Strategic Insights.

The firm found that 27 per cent of decided voters in Alberta would vote to leave the confederation, marking a seven point increase from December and a record-high over the past five years since Pollara began tracking the independence movement.

“Familiarity and impressions of Mark Carney and Pierre Poilievre are nearly identical to each other in Alberta,” writes the firm. “While Danielle Smith is better known than Naheed Nenshi, he enjoys a higher net impression rating.”

PSI noted that while provincial NDP and federal Liberal/NDP voters are “overwhelmingly against separatism” at 96 per cent, provincial UCP and federal Conservatives voters are split.

Overall support for Alberta separatism still “remains relatively low,” but rises to 42 per cent when you add in Albertans who would consider voting to separate as a way to “send a message” to Ottawa.

“Despite growing support for separatism, 84 per cent of Albertans are ‘proud to be Canadian,’ an increase from 2022,” it said. “Notably, 58 per cent of those who would vote to separate are still ‘proud to be Canadian.’”

PSI also found that the proposition of Alberta as an independent country instead of joining the United States as the 51st state has polled consistently higher over the past year.

Rural Albertans and UCP supporters were more supportive of separation, with 55 per cent UCP voters and 33 per cent of those who lived outside of Calgary and Edmonton in favour of independence.

Additionally, men between the ages of 35 and 49 were the most pro-separation demographic, with 30 per cent saying that Alberta should separate from Canada and become its own country.

However, several Alberta First Nations have alleged that Ottawa, Alberta and the province’s chief electoral officer failed to uphold treaty rights by allowing a potential referendum to take place.

The group is currently challenging the constitutionality of Alberta’s citizen-initiated referendum process in a provincial court.

“I think we’ve seen over the last few years some of the legislations that have been impacting our treaty, and Bill 14 really crossed the line when it comes to our treaty,” Sturgeon Lake Cree Nation Chief Sheldon Sunshine told reporters outside the courthouse on Tuesday.

Meanwhile, Stay Free Alberta, the group responsible for collecting signatures for a petition to qualify for a referendum on the province leaving Canada, said that it already has more than the 178,000 signatures required to trigger the vote.

Alberta Premier Danielle Smith has vowed to allow a referendum vote to go ahead if the threshold for signatures is met.