Quebec’s government projected to lose all seats in 2026 after separatist byelection win
A new 338Canada projection shows the governing Coalition Avenir Québec would be wiped out in the October 2026 provincial election.
A new 338Canada projection shows the governing Coalition Avenir Québec would be wiped out in the October 2026 provincial election, losing all 86 seats it currently holds in the National Assembly.
The seat forecast, released Wednesday, comes just two days after the CAQ suffered another stinging defeat, this time in the Arthabaska byelection, where the separatist Parti Québécois took the riding with 46 per cent of the vote.
PQ candidate Alex Boissonneault held a steady lead throughout Monday’s count, besting Conservative Party of Quebec Leader Éric Duhaime, who finished with about 35 per cent of the vote.
CAQ candidate Keven Brasseur, who ran in a riding the party captured with 51 per cent of the vote in 2022, placed fourth with roughly seven per cent.
The loss marked the third consecutive byelection in which the PQ wrested a seat from the CAQ. The sovereigntist party also captured Jean-Talon in October 2023 and Terrebonne in March 2024.
Premier François Legault, whose party won 90 seats in the 2022 election but now holds 86, admitted Quebecers are “disappointed” with his government and said this week it is “time for me to show humility and to listen to citizens.”
He said he will consult ministers, members of the national assembly, and voters to identify necessary policy changes.
The projection also shows the Conservative Party of Quebec, led by Duhaime, winning eight seats.
The party has never won a seat in a general election.
Its only seat in history came on June 18, 2021, when Claire Samson, expelled from the CAQ days earlier after donating $100 to the Conservatives, crossed the floor to join Duhaime’s caucus.
PQ Leader Paul St-Pierre Plamondon told supporters Monday his party will continue to work to protect Quebec’s culture and language, and pledged to bring the momentum from the byelection into the 2026 campaign.
The next Quebec election is scheduled for Oct. 5, 2026.
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