Liberals most supported by Canadians over 60 due to fears of Trump
“The result is an electorate in which the Liberals’ national lead depends heavily on older voters. Among Canadians under 60, the two largest parties are effectively tied,” reads the survey.
Author: Quinn Patrick
The gap between the Liberals and the Conservatives is closing in as the Carney government now only holds a six-point lead, with much of their support coming from Canadians aged 60 and older.
Their favourability remains the result of fears over U.S. President Donald Trump and other international threats.
According to the latest Abacus Data survey, the Liberals have the support of 44 per cent of decided voters, compared to 38 per cent for the Conservatives and 9 per cent for the NDP.
“The result is an electorate in which the Liberals’ national lead depends heavily on older voters. Among Canadians under 60, the two largest parties are effectively tied,” reads the survey.
The Carney government also enjoys the support of older Canadians, particularly those aged 60 and over, with a 20-point lead over the Conservatives in that demographic.
However, no other age group gives either party a “meaningful advantage.”
The Liberals hold particularly strong leads over the Conservatives in Atlantic Canada and Quebec, while the margin is much closer in British Columbia and Ontario.
Meanwhile, the Conservatives continue to dominate in Alberta, where they lead 55 per cent over the Liberals 30 per cent. In both Saskatchewan and Manitoba, they lead 51 per cent to 35 per cent.
“The national Liberal advantage is therefore built on competitive strength across the country’s largest seat-rich regions. The Conservatives have a large advantage in the Prairies, but the Liberals lead everywhere else,” reads the survey.
“Among those aged 18 to 29, the Liberals and Conservatives are essentially tied, at 38 per cent and 37 per cent respectively. The NDP receives 15 per cent and the Greens 6 per cent,” ,” reads the survey. “Among those aged 30 to 44, the Conservatives lead narrowly, 40 per cent to 38 per cent, with the NDP at 12 per cent.”
Canadians aged 45 to 59 are also nearly evenly divided, with the Liberals beating out the Conservatives by only one point.
“The Carney government advanced a new west coast pipeline, made the largest defence procurement decision in Canadian history, changed the approach to Senate appointments, and pursued new defence and economic partnerships abroad. Some of these decisions were ambitious. Others were controversial,” said Colleto. “None appears to have significantly altered how Canadians feel about the government or how they would vote.”
While 52 per cent of Canadians approve of the job the Ottawa is doing, approval is down two points since July 2, while disapproval is up one.
This is largely due to the fact that the Conservatives are better viewed to deal with many of Canada’s most pressing issues, such as cost of living, economy, housing affordability, immigration, crime and public safety, as well as job security.
Cost of living is the area where the Conservatives enjoy the strongest lead over the Liberals at 36 and 30 per cent, while they hold slight leads over the Liberals on all the above-mentioned issues.
“The Liberal advantage is overwhelming on Donald Trump and his administration. Among Canadians who identify Trump as a top concern, 63 per cent say the Liberals are best able to manage the issue, compared with only 15 per cent who choose the Conservatives. The Liberals also lead on healthcare, inequality and poverty, and artificial intelligence. The Greens have a slight advantage on climate change and the environment,” reads the survey.
“This data set underscores one of the main tensions in Canadian politics. The Conservatives are stronger on many of the domestic issues that affect household finances and public safety, among those who prioritize those issues. The Liberals have a commanding advantage on Trump, international threats, and several public-service and social-policy issues.”