Doubling Canada’s LNG production could offset nearly all of its emissions globally

According to a new study, if Canada doubled its liquid natural gas production and exported the additional supply to Asia, it could reduce global greenhouse gas emissions by 630 million tonnes.

A new Fraser Institute study found that if Canada wants to reduce global GHG emissions, it could sell Asia some of the cleanest LNG in the world. Canada could replace much of Asia’s coal-powered energy, which generates nearly twice the GHG emissions as natural gas for the same amount of electricity.

According to the study, if Canada sold the additional natural gas to Asia after doubling its production, it could reduce the equivalent of taking “137 million cars off the road annually.”

“It’s possible for us to double our existing natural gas production, but realistically, for that to happen, we need to remove several barriers that are now in the way,” Elmira Aliakbari, a natural resource expert with the Fraser Institute and co-author of the study, told True North.

According to a Natural Resources Canada report from 2024, Canada holds 87 trillion cubic feet of proven natural gas reserves, ranking 15th globally and third in the Western Hemisphere. In the same year, the Energy Institute reported that Canada was the fifth-largest natural gas producer in the world, and produced 190.3 billion cubic metres in 2023.

By replacing China’s coal-generated power with Canada’s LNG, the study found that emissions would be cut by 62 per cent for every unit of power produced.

It noted that coal consumption in the Asia-Pacific region, including China and India, rose by 182 per cent between 2000 and 2023. Coal accounted for 56 per cent of India’s energy consumption and 54 per cent of China’s in 2023.

Aliakbari said several forecasts, including from the International Energy Agency, show that demand for LNG will continue to rise in the coming years and decades. Demand is expected to rise, especially in the Asia-Pacific region, with a growing population and energy demands as they make good on their pledge to decarbonize their economies.

“They will need to look for cleaner energy sources. And now we see that given the massive reserves that we have here in Canada in terms of natural gas, we can play a significant role in reducing global greenhouse gas emissions by helping those countries transition away from coal,” she said.

She noted Canada’s competitive advantages, including its colder climate, shorter shipping distances to Asia compared to the U.S., and its use of hydroelectricity in the liquefaction process. These factors also give Canadian LNG a lower carbon footprint than most global competitors.

Aliakbari said it’s “possible” to double Canada’s existing LNG production to offset global emissions. However, the provincial and federal governments of Canada would need to remove “several barriers” to do so.

She noted that the federal Bill C-69, the Impact Assessment Act, dubbed popularly as the “no more pipelines bill,” introduced in 2019, has added superfluous priorities to the review process for new major energy projects, including LNG plants.

“Under this bill, several new and subjective criteria, such as the social impact of an energy project or its gender implications, have been added to the review process, creating uncertainty about whether and how the new projects will get approved,” Aliakbari said. “The federal government's emissions cap imposed on the oil and gas sector is another significant barrier. This cap will inevitably curtail oil and gas production in our country in the coming years.”

She said some of the barriers arise from provincial legislation in provinces such as Quebec, Newfoundland and Labrador, and New Brunswick.

“They have implemented fracking bans, which would limit access to natural gas reserves, or in B.C., there are onerous regulations that would require new LNG facilities to have a plan to reach net-zero emissions by 2050,” she continued. “We need to remove these barriers, you know, if we want Canada to reach its full potential and become a major LNG player.”