Conservatives take the lead over Liberals as Carney stumbles: poll
Prime Minister Mark Carney is facing the first major drop in his popularity since taking office, as Canadians sour on his handling of stalled U.S. trade talks and his decision to scrap counter-tariffs
By Isaac Lamoureux, True North
Prime Minister Mark Carney is facing the first major drop in his popularity since taking office, as Canadians sour on his handling of stalled U.S. trade talks and his decision to scrap counter-tariffs.
According to a Friday Angus Reid Institute poll, Carney’s approval rating has fallen six points to 51 per cent since June, while disapproval has jumped 12 points.
The survey also shows the Conservatives edging ahead of the Liberals, with 40 per cent support compared to 38 per cent for Carney’s party in vote intention.
The vote shift came in large part due to 9 per cent of those who voted Liberal saying they would now support the federal NDP.
“Summer has come and mostly gone, and no trade deal has materialized between Canada and its largest trading partner – the United States,” the Angus Reid report noted, adding that many Canadians are “dissatisfied or uncertain” about Carney’s decision to lift retaliatory tariffs.
The poll indicated that issues such as housing affordability and nation-building also contributed to Carney’s personal approval downfall.
Carney’s “Elbows Up” campaign positioned him as someone who would stand up to the United States. As such, Canadians who supported him are generally unhappy about the removal of tariffs. Over three in 10, or 35 percent, expressed dissatisfaction with the decision, while 26 percent expressed uncertainty.
Canadians' confidence in Carney's trade negotiation skills has dropped. In July, 46 per cent were confident he'd secure a beneficial tariff deal, while 45 per cent were not. Now, only 43 per cent express confidence, and 53 per cent lack it — a 10-point shift against his trade negotiations.
A majority of Canadians (61 per cent) support a tougher approach in trade negotiations with the U.S., even if it worsens relations, according to the Angus Reid survey.
Half of Canadians believe the country is "on the wrong track" in addressing housing affordability, cost of living, and healthcare access. Conversely, only 28 per cent think it's on the "right track."
And second poll this week from Abacus Research also highlighted the Liberal’s weakness in dealing with housing affordability and cost of living.
Despite a rising lack of confidence among supporters of almost every party between August and September 2025, Liberal supporters remain more confident in Carney’s ability to negotiate a positive trade deal with the U.S.
However, disapproval of Carney rose among supporters of all parties. Bloc Québecois supporters showed the largest increase at 29 per cent, followed by NDP supporters (21 per cent), Conservative supporters (16 per cent), and Liberals (5 per cent).
While the U.S.-Canada tariff negotiation has dominated the headlines, Canada was recently saddled with a $5 billion tariff on Canadian Canola by China. The move came in retaliation for Ottawa imposing 100 per cent tariffs on Chinese-made electric vehicles last year.
Additionally, Canada was burdened with the fifth-highest tariff rate in the world by the U.S., while Canada’s southern counterparty extended the tariff deadline for China by three months.
The United States’ Secretary of Commerce Howard Lutnick ridiculed Carney for his approach.
“Carney got elected with this term ‘Elbows Up,’ meaning let’s fight with America. They put on retaliatory tariffs. They were all bravado,” said Lutnick. “What happened? Their GDP: -1.6 per cent; unemployment: rocketing towards 8 per cent.”
“It’s all bravado because you think it feels good to fight with the biggest client in the world, but eventually your businesses are going to say, ‘You’ve got to stop this and go make your deal with America,’” said Lutnick.