Carney’s immigration plan ignores temporary visa overstays

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s pledge to return Canada’s immigration back to “sustainable levels” fails to account for non-permanent residents, especially when they overstay their visas.

Source: Wikimedia Commons

Prime Minister Mark Carney’s pledge to return Canada’s immigration back to “sustainable levels” fails to account for non-permanent residents who strain various social services and public infrastructure, especially when they overstay their visas.

Carney said that his government would cap immigration at 5 per cent of Canada’s total population by the end of 2027, including both temporary foreign workers and international students.

“It‘s a sharp drop from the recent high of 7.3 per cent. This will help ease strains on housing, on public infrastructure and social services,” said Carney during his first press conference as prime minister.

According to Statistics Canada, there are currently just over three million non-permanent residents in the country, and, likely, a sizable proportion may not agree to leave on their own once their visas have expired.

This problem is at the root of this issue for immigration lawyer Sergio Karas.

“The problem with the Prime Minister’s statements and with the Statistics Canada data he is relying on is that they do not reflect reality,” Karas told True North.

“Many individuals whose permits expire have limited or no path to permanent residency, so they simply stay and join the underground economy.”

Non-permanent residents include international students, work-permit holders, asylum claimants and family members of work- or study-permit holders.

Carney said he intends to maintain the reduction in immigration levels that was ushered in late last year while Justin Trudeau was still prime minister.

The 2025-2027 Immigration Levels Plan was released last fall and aims to gradually reduce the number of migrants from 673,650 this year to 516,600 in 2026 and 543,600 in 2027.

While Statistics Canada estimates are predicated on the presumption that visa holders whose permits have expired will voluntarily leave the country within 120 days, many do not, remaining and working in Canada illegally.

Additionally, what often happens is that those with expired permits seek alternative methods to prolong their stay.

According to Karas, many international students whose “post-graduation work permits have expired are resorting to pursuing refugee claims to extend their stay in Canada, even though they may be unfounded.”

“We have seen recent spikes in this phenomenon as the labour market tightens and employers are unwilling to file applications for further employment,” he said. “They are not leaving the country, they are just disappearing from the radar screens.”

According to government data obtained by Global News on Monday, international students filed a record 20,245 asylum claims last year, with 2025 expected to surpass that number.

Statistics Canada said there were 28,341 fewer non-permanent residents in the country as of Jan. 1 of this year compared to Oct. 1 of last year.

While this marked the largest decline since the third quarter of 2020 during the COVID-19 pandemic when border restrictions prevented people from entering Canada, it doesn’t necessarily mean those people are no longer residing within the country.

“The solution to the problem of a burgeoning overstay population is simple, yet politically unpalatable for the Liberals: they have to reduce temporary resident intake dramatically, and at the same time increase enforcement and curtail stalling tactics by those who are offside,” said Karas.

“People will have to understand that if their temporary stay is over, they must leave to avoid further consequences. Unless the system provides certainty of outcomes, the problem will continue.”