The Canadian Taxpayers Federation is taking the Carney government to court over RCMP gun confiscation cost estimates Ottawa refuses to release, as independent projections put the potential bill in the billions.
Of Ottawa’s $742.5-million gun confiscation budget, $493.9 million is allocated to policing, administration, collection and other costs rather than compensating firearms owners and businesses.
“No self-respecting shopper pays for anything without looking at the checkout total first,” wrote Canadian Taxpayers Federation (CTF) Prairie director Gage Haubrich, criticizing Prime Minister Mark Carney and Public Safety Minister Gary Anandasangaree for withholding cost information.
The fight began in July 2023, when the CTF requested RCMP estimates for collecting and destroying banned firearms.
Seven months later, Ottawa disclosed a $12.6-million estimate for the RCMP’s Pacific region but withheld figures from other divisions.
The CTF complained to the information commissioner in April 2024 after Ottawa withheld the records, initially citing security concerns before invoking cabinet confidence to block further review.
“But that’s ridiculous,” Haubrich wrote. “The government already gave the CTF the numbers for British Columbia.”
“It’s obviously not top-secret information used for cabinet discussion. It’s just information that the government likely doesn’t want taxpayers to see.”
The CTF launched a Federal Court challenge to obtain the withheld estimates and is now seeking a court date, Haubrich said.
The Liberals initially pegged the gun buyback at $200 million, but independent estimates now run into the billions.
The Parliamentary Budget Officer estimated compensation alone could cost up to $756 million, while the Fraser Institute projected broader costs could reach $6.76 billion, including collection expenses and retailer inventory losses.
The Fraser Institute’s figure is a scenario-based estimate, not confirmed spending, and covers different expenses than the parliamentary budget officer’s projection.
As of writing, Ottawa’s $742.5-million funding envelope includes $248.6 million for compensation, with the remaining $493.9 million allocated to administration, RCMP operations, collection and other costs.
“If any employee changed their estimates for a project that many times, they’d be looking for a new job,” Haubrich wrote.
The program has also drawn criticism from police organizations and provincial governments.
The National Police Federation has warned it could divert resources from fighting gun crime, while Toronto Police Association president Clayton Campbell said it would have “essentially, zero impact” on gun crime in Toronto.
A 2025 firearms collection pilot in Cape Breton, Nova Scotia, collected just 25 guns against a target of 200, according to the CTF, despite Ottawa approving $149,760 in project funding.
That works out to nearly $6,000 in approved funding per firearm collected, although actual expenditures remain unclear.
The CTF has also questioned whether Ottawa has evidence the program will make Canadians safer.
In a separate access-to-information request seeking analysis of the program’s impact on crime, Public Safety Canada responded that “no information related to your request exists within Public Safety Canada.”
The response does not establish that no other analysis exists.
Ottawa maintains the program will improve public safety by removing prohibited firearms from circulation and says eligible owners can receive compensation.
Haubrich said the government should disclose the full cost rather than force taxpayers to fight for the figures in court.
“Taxpayers shouldn’t be forced to pay for this confiscation scheme that is unlikely to work in the first place. And they shouldn’t be forced to go to court to get basic cost information,” he wrote.